Amidst the hustle and bustle of Indian households, a familiar sight emerges: Surf Excel detergent finding its way into countless washing machines and laundry tubs. But just how much of this iconic detergent gets consumed on a daily basis across the nation? Let’s guesstimate!
There are three important things one should have to solve a guesstimate:
What: Surf Excel detergent
Where: India
When: In a day
Once we have this information, we can move on to assumptions/clarifying questions:
Note 1: Given we do not have an interviewer to resolve our questions, the pointers have the questions, and the sub-pointers have the assumptions. Additionally, if an interviewer is asked clarifying questions, they usually expect the interviewee to make assumptions with proper reasoning.
Note 2: Every assumption must have proper reasoning, as the interviewer is not looking for the “correct” answer, rather trying to understand how you think, and how logically/structurally you can approach the problem.
Are we considering both domestic and commercial usage, or only domestic usage?
Let’s assume we are only looking at domestic usage (this would exclude all commercial use cases of detergent, such as laundry at hotels, serviced apartments etc).
What is the market share of Surf Excel detergent in the Indian market?
Given Surf Excel is a brand in the HUL portfolio, and also almost synonymous with detergent in many parts of India, let’s assume Surf Excel has a market share of 40%.
Are we considering both powdered detergent and liquid detergent, or only one of the two?
Let’s assume we are considering both, powdered and liquid detergent, as both types are commonly used in Indian households, and excluding one could lead to a significant underestimation of the total usage. The choice between powdered and liquid detergent often depends on personal preferences, washing methods (machine vs. hand wash), and economic factors.
How much detergent is typically used per load of laundry?
For machine wash, an average of 60g of powdered detergent or 45ml of liquid detergent is used per load. For hand wash, it’s slightly less, around 40g of powder or 30ml of liquid detergent, considering that hand washes might use detergent more sparingly. Given the distribution of washing methods and the availability of both product types, let’s assume an overall average usage of 50g (or equivalent ml for liquid) per wash.
How often do households do their laundry?
Urban households might do laundry more frequently due to better access to washing machines and lifestyle factors. Rural households might do it less frequently but potentially have larger loads per wash. Let’s assume an average across all households of doing laundry 3 times a week. This balances out daily washers with those who may only wash once or twice a week.
Calculation:
Top-down Approach:
Daily usage of Surf Excel in India = (Population of India / Average household size) x (% of households using Surf Excel) x (Frequency of laundry sessions) x (Usage of Surf Excel in grams per wash)
Population of India: 1.4 billion.
Average household size: 4 persons/household.
Total households in India: 350 million households.
With Surf Excel having a 40% market share among detergent users and considering that not all households may use detergent (some might use soap bars or other cleaning agents for laundry), let’s conservatively estimate that 70% of households use some form of detergent. Thus, 28% of all households (40% of 70%) are using Surf Excel.
Surf Excel using households: 28% of 350 million = 98 million households.
With laundry done 3 times a week, there’s a 43% chance (3/7) that laundry is being done on any given day.
Households using Surf Excel daily: 43% of 98 million ≈ 42 million households.
Detergent usage per household: 50g per wash.
Total daily consumption: 42 million * 50g = 2100 million grams, or 2100 tonnes per day.
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